Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Cole singled to right, Matthews scored.3–4
- 9Rodríguez walked, Refsnyder scored, Crawford to second, Garver to third.3–3
- 8Altuve hit sacrifice fly to center, Matthews scored, Cole to third.2–3
- 6Altuve walked, Shewmake scored, Cole to second, Matthews to third.2–2
- 6Walker homered to right (338 feet).2–1
- 6Raley homered to left (356 feet).2–0
- 1Crawford homered to right (383 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -130 / HOU +108
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.5%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- HOU +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −22 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +39 Elo | SEA 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.030th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 9–1226th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149226th of 30 |
| 7th of 301521 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–25 | 16–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–22 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23–2 | 27–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 31–14 HOU in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 45.