Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pederson singled to center, Burger scored, Foscue to second.1–4
- 4Cole homered to right (361 feet).0–4
- 4Walker homered to left center (422 feet).0–3
- 1Alvarez homered to right (362 feet).0–2
- 1Altuve homered to left (358 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML TEX -155 / HOU +128
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.1%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -139
- HOU +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 3.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −7 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +28 Elo | TEX 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 11–1324th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–24 | 18–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–25–2 | 28–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 20–27 HOU in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 47.