Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kendry RojasPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Walker singled to right, Vázquez scored, Alvarez to third.3–6
- 7Peña hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored.2–6
- 7Vázquez singled to center, Matthews scored, Smith to third.1–6
- 6Keaschall singled to center, Clemens scored and Jeffers scored, Bell to second.0–6
- 6Bell singled to right, Larnach scored, Clemens to second, Jeffers to third.0–4
- 4Bell homered to left (381 feet), Larnach scored.0–3
- 2Bell homered to center (429 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML HOU -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +9 | HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Kendry Rojas (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +27 Elo | MIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–15 | Road vs home | 13–1319th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–29 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 14–17 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 28–18–2 | 26–17–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–10 MIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.