Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian VazquezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right (406 feet), Amaya scored.4–2
- 5Matthews singled to center, Paredes scored, Meyers to second.4–0
- 4Vázquez singled to right, Shewmake scored, Cole to third.3–0
- 4Cole grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Walker scored, Smith out at second, Shewmake to third.2–0
- 3Vázquez homered to left center (371 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML HOU +123 / CHC -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -133
- HOU +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.2 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +5 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +63 Elo | CHC 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 18–82nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15094th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301479 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–31 | 21–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 15–19 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–20–3 | 26–19–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–4 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.