Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- David HamiltonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4
- Edward CabreraPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hamilton scored on Maton wild pitch.5–0
- 7Hamilton scored on Maton wild pitch.5–0
- 3Bauers singled to right, Contreras scored.4–0
- 2Hamilton singled to center, Frelick scored, Ortiz scored on fielding error by center fielder Crow-Armstrong and Hamilton scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML MIL +104 / CHC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 47.6%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -113
- MIL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.1 – 3.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 18–72nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–19 | 21–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–15 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22–2 | 26–18–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 26–20 CHC in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 46.
- May 19MIL 5 @ CHC 2Picked MIL 53%Hit
- May 18MIL 9 @ CHC 3Picked CHC 59%Miss
- Oct 11CHC 1 @ MIL 3PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Hit
- Oct 9MIL 0 @ CHC 6PlayoffsPicked MIL 52%Miss
- Oct 8MIL 3 @ CHC 4PlayoffsPicked CHC 50%Hit
- Oct 6CHC 3 @ MIL 7PlayoffsPicked MIL 55%Hit
- Oct 4CHC 3 @ MIL 9PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Hit
- Aug 21MIL 4 @ CHC 1Picked CHC 56%Miss