Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-4
- Colin ReaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Walker homered to left center (369 feet).3–0
- 1Walker homered to left center (376 feet), Alvarez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML HOU +123 / CHC -149
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -133
- HOU +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.2 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −14 | HOU: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +57 Elo | CHC 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 18–93rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301481 | Elo rating | 15325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–31 | 21–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 16–19 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–21–3 | 26–20–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–4 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.