Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Valdez homered to right (345 feet), Rodríguez scored.4–1
- 4Clement singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Pinango to second.2–1
- 2Cruz homered to right (415 feet).2–0
- 1Horwitz homered to right (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML PIT +145 / TOR -176
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.5%, market 61.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +8 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +67 Elo | TOR 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 15–1110th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 18th of 301490 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–27 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 27–23–2 | 23–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–8 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.