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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, TBS, YES, Sportsnet One, Sportsnet, TVA

Away

Blue Jays

21-27

4–5

at

Home

Yankees

30-19

TOR 46%NYY 54%

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Yankee Stadium · MLB.TV, TBS, YES, Sportsnet One, Sportsnet, TVA

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.

NYY75%50%75%TORStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jays
  • Daulton VarshoBatting4-5
  • Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Yankees
  • Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Giménez scored.4–5
  • 5Rice homered to right center (366 feet), Grisham scored.3–5
  • 4McMahon homered to left (383 feet), Judge scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.3–3
  • 4Giménez singled to left, Pinango scored, Sánchez to third.3–0
  • 4Sánchez singled to left, Okamoto scored, Pinango to second.2–0
  • 4Pinango singled to right, Varsho scored, Okamoto to third.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 54%

Toss-upHit
TOR 46%NYY 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
NYY 54%
ML TOR +109 / NYY -132
Pre-line forecast
NYY 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 56%
Ratings vs. market
+1.4 pts
NYY: Elo 55.7%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
NYY -119
TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORNYYWhy
Team rating15151553Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+9−6TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +40 EloNYY 55.7%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 55.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 55.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatNYY
23rd of 304.1Runs scored5.14th of 30
14th of 304.4Runs allowed3.64th of 30
17th of 30−0.3Margin+1.44th of 30
12th of 305–5Last 103–725th of 30
25th of 308–15Road vs home15–63rd of 30
24th of 301493Opponent Elo149423rd of 30
11th of 301515Elo rating15533rd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Blue JaysYankees
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORNYY
Run line23–2428–20
Last 106–44–6
Favorite11–1623–18
Underdog12–85–2
Overs–unders22–23–220–24–4
Overs–unders, last 105–53–6–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 23–21 NYY in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 44.