Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sánchez doubled to right, Clement scored.6–7
- 7Chisholm Jr. homered to left (339 feet), Grisham scored.5–7
- 7Bellinger homered to center (402 feet), Judge scored.5–5
- 6Clement grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Sosa scored, Varsho out at second.5–3
- 5Springer homered to left center (403 feet).4–3
- 4Goldschmidt doubled to center, Schuemann scored.3–3
- 4Escarra hit sacrifice fly to right, Volpe scored.3–2
- 4Clement homered to left center (381 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Okamoto scored.3–1
- 1Goldschmidt homered to right center (393 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML TOR +146 / NYY -177
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.9%, market 61.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -157
- TOR +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +55 Elo | NYY 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–14 | Road vs home | 14–63rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–24 | 28–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 23–17 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23–2 | 19–24–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 23–20 NYY in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 43.
- Oct 8TOR 5 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Miss
- Oct 7TOR 6 @ NYY 9PlayoffsPicked NYY 60%Hit
- Oct 5NYY 7 @ TOR 13PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Miss
- Oct 4NYY 1 @ TOR 10PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Hit
- Sep 7TOR 3 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 62%Hit
- Sep 6TOR 1 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 57%Hit
- Sep 5TOR 7 @ NYY 1Picked NYY 53%Miss
- Jul 23NYY 4 @ TOR 8Picked NYY 55%Miss