Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-3
- Drew AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torkelson doubled to right, Vierling scored, McKinstry to third.2–3
- 6Greene doubled to right, Dingler scored.2–2
- 3McGonigle scored on Yesavage wild pitch, Dingler to second on wild pitch by Yesavage.2–1
- 3McGonigle scored on Yesavage wild pitch, Dingler to second on wild pitch by Yesavage.2–1
- 2Giménez doubled to right, Clement scored and Okamoto scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TOR -126 / DET +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.3%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +14 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Brenan Hanifee: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 12–64th of 30 |
| 27th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20–2 | 21–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–10 DET in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 20.