Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Adam FrazierBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Blue Jays- Brandon ValenzuelaBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schneider singled to left, Valenzuela scored, Straw to second.1–14
- 8Heineman grounded out to second, Clement scored, Valenzuela to third.1–13
- 8Valenzuela doubled to right, Varsho scored, Clement to third.1–12
- 8Sánchez homered to right (398 feet).1–11
- 8Frazier doubled to right, Teodosio scored, Schanuel to third.1–10
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Valenzuela scored, Springer to second.0–10
- 7Clement homered to left (368 feet).0–9
- 5Valenzuela homered to left (382 feet), Varsho scored and Clement scored.0–8
- 5Clement singled to left, Sánchez scored, Clement to second, Varsho to third.0–5
- 5Okamoto scored, Varsho safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Kochanowicz, Varsho safe at second and Sánchez safe at third on error.0–4
- 5Sánchez singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Okamoto to second.0–3
- 5Okamoto singled to left, Barger scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.0–2
- 4Giménez hit sacrifice fly to left, Sánchez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML LAA +153 / TOR -186
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 63.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -165
- LAA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +95 Elo | TOR 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 24th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 11–88th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149026th of 30 |
| 29th of 301451 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–21 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–21 | 17–19–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–18 TOR in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.