Detroit Tigers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gage WorkmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Semien homered to left (386 feet).4–9
- 8Dingler homered to left center (379 feet).4–8
- 7Soto homered to center (412 feet).3–8
- 6Senger hit sacrifice bunt, Semien scored, Ewing to second.3–7
- 5Vientos homered to left (392 feet), Soto scored.3–6
- 5Soto singled to center, Benge scored.3–4
- 4Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Brett Baty homers (379 feet) on a fly ball to left center field. MJ Melendez scores.3–3
- 3Ewing homered to right center (405 feet).3–1
- 1Workman homered to left center (379 feet), Keith scored and Greene scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML DET +130 / NYM -157
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.7%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -141
- DET +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +12 Elo | NYM 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–18 | Road vs home | 8–1228th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148230th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–23 | 17–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21–2 | 15–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–5 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.