Detroit Tigers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ewing walked, Vientos scored, Semien to second, Slater to third.2–10
- 8Soto scored on error, Slater safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Vanasco, Vientos to second.2–9
- 7Torrens singled to right, Ewing scored.2–8
- 7Ewing tripled to right, Baty scored.2–7
- 6Soto grounded out to first, Benge scored, Bichette to second.2–6
- 6Bichette grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ewing scored and Torrens scored, Benge safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Workman, Benge safe at third on error.2–5
- 4Benge singled to left, Alvarez scored.2–3
- 3Vientos singled to right, Bichette scored, Soto to second.2–2
- 2Alvarez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Melendez scored, Ewing out at second, Baty to third.2–1
- 2Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to left, Pérez scored.2–0
- 2Dingler homered to left (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML DET +119 / NYM -143
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -129
- DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +2 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +15 Elo | NYM 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–16 | Road vs home | 6–1229th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148329th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Elo rating | 148621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–22 | 16–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20–2 | 14–22–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–3 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.