Detroit Tigers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Benge singled to center, Ewing scored.2–3
- 7Bichette singled to right, Torrens scored, Benge to third.2–2
- 2Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to third, Vientos scored, Baty out at second.2–1
- 1Greene singled to center, McGonigle scored and Dingler scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML DET -106 / NYM -114
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.5%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −15 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +4 Elo | DET 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 13th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–17 | Road vs home | 7–1229th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148329th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–23 | 17–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20–2 | 15–22–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–4 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.