Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4
- Eric LauerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell homered to left center (449 feet).6–1
- 6Adell homered to right (385 feet).5–1
- 5Grissom doubled to center, Trout scored and Neto scored, Grissom out stretching at third.4–1
- 5Peraza homered to left (392 feet), Schanuel scored.2–1
- 1Okamoto doubled to left, Varsho scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML LAA -102 / TOR -118
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- LAA +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −6 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Spencer Miles (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +66 Elo | TOR 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–15 | Road vs home | 12–87th of 30 |
| 6th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 30 |
| 29th of 301448 | Elo rating | 15197th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–22 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–21 | 18–19–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–19 TOR in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.