Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Giménez homered to right (401 feet), Straw scored.8–5
- 7Palacios singled to right, Aranda scored.8–3
- 5Aranda homered to center (415 feet).7–3
- 4Simpson scored on throwing error by catcher Valenzuela.6–3
- 4Simpson scored on throwing error by catcher Valenzuela.6–3
- 2Giménez homered to right (351 feet), Okamoto scored and Sánchez scored.5–3
- 2Aranda singled to center, Simpson scored.5–0
- 2Walls tripled to center, Feduccia scored.4–0
- 1Palacios singled to right, Caminero scored and Fraley scored.3–0
- 1Aranda hit sacrifice fly to left, Simpson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TB +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +19 Elo | TOR 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 12–99th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 30 |
| 7th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–14 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–7 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19–3 | 18–20–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 26–16 TOR in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 42.