Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caminero homered to center (449 feet), Palacios scored.8–4
- 8Abreu hit sacrifice fly to right, Duran scored.6–4
- 8Simpson tripled to right, Williamson scored.6–3
- 6Simpson singled to center, Caminero scored and DeLuca scored, Williamson to second.5–3
- 2Durbin singled to right, Mayer scored, Wong to second.3–3
- 2Wong grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Yoshida scored, Mayer to second, Mayer safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Walls.3–2
- 2Rafaela reached on infield single to shortstop, Story scored, Yoshida to second.3–1
- 2Díaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Fortes scored, Walls to second, Mullins to third.3–0
- 2Mullins reached on bunt single to first, Williamson scored, Fortes to third.2–0
- 2Williamson singled to right, DeLuca scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML TB +100 / BOS -121
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.2%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -110
- TB +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +22 Elo | BOS 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 6–1028th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15159th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–13 | 13–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–7 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17–3 | 18–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–9–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 21–18 BOS in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 39.