Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Nick FortesBatting2-3
- Jesse ScholtensPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Rafaela homered to left (379 feet).0–2
- 3Abreu homered to right center (427 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML TB +114 / BOS -137
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +5 | TB: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +41 Elo | BOS 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 6–1128th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 8th of 301516 | Elo rating | 151210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–13 | 13–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–7 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17–3 | 19–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 22–18 BOS in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 40.