Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Mickey GasperBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Payton TollePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gasper singled to right, Story scored.4–1
- 6Mullins hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Williamson scored, Aranda to second.4–0
- 3Williamson singled to right, Simpson scored.3–0
- 3Fortes scored on error, Simpson safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Story, Simpson to second.2–0
- 1Caminero homered to left center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML TB +129 / BOS -156
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- TB +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −5 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +6 Elo | TB 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 7–1128th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 9th of 301515 | Elo rating | 151311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–14 | 14–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–7 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18–3 | 19–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 22–19 BOS in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 41.