Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Varsho homered to left (375 feet), Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. scored and Okamoto scored.3–5
- 10Díaz singled to center, Williamson scored.3–1
- 10Williamson singled to center, Simpson scored.2–1
- 8Okamoto hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.1–1
- 7Palacios singled to center, Aranda scored, Fraley to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TB +124 / TOR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.2%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -134
- TB +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +9 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 12–1116th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 30 |
| 8th of 301520 | Elo rating | 151211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–14 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–7 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19–3 | 20–20–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 28–16 TOR in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 44.