Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Ryan ViladeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Springer scored.7–6
- 10Aranda hit sacrifice fly to center, Walls scored.7–5
- 10Walls singled to right, Mullins scored.6–5
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Pinango scored.5–5
- 7Pinango doubled to right, Springer scored and Valenzuela scored.5–4
- 7Springer reached on infield single to shortstop, Sánchez scored, Valenzuela to second.5–2
- 7Sánchez doubled to left, Clement scored.5–1
- 7Vilade homered to left (390 feet).5–0
- 6Walls scored on Nance wild pitch.4–0
- 6Walls scored on Nance wild pitch.4–0
- 3Mullins singled to center, Caminero scored and Williamson scored.3–0
- 1DeLuca doubled to right, Aranda scored, Caminero to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -118 / TOR -102
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TB: Elo 50.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -107
- TOR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +2 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +2 Elo | TB 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 12–1013th of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Elo rating | 151310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–14 | 19–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–7 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–19–3 | 19–20–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 27–16 TOR in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 43.