New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty singled to right, Melendez scored.5–2
- 9Rice homered to right center (395 feet).5–1
- 7Soto homered to center (393 feet).4–1
- 5Jones singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.4–0
- 3Chisholm Jr. doubled to right, Bellinger scored and Judge scored.3–0
- 3Bellinger doubled to right, Rice scored, Judge to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -149 / NYM +123
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -133
- NYM +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +12 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +46 Elo | NYY 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 9–1227th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148330th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301554 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–18 | 18–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–16 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24–3 | 16–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–9 NYM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.