New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6O'Neill doubled to right, Basallo scored.6–2
- 6Basallo singled to right, Ward scored.6–1
- 3Grisham homered to center (397 feet), Bellinger scored and Rosario scored.6–0
- 3Rosario reached on infield single to third, Judge scored, Bellinger to second.3–0
- 3Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wells scored, Rice out at second, Judge to third.2–0
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML NYY -144 / BAL +119
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.3%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -129
- BAL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +51 Elo | NYY 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 11–1117th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301555 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–17 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–15 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22–3 | 25–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 24–20 BAL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 44.