Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Basallo singled to center, Rutschman scored.4–3
- 8Wilson singled to right, Soderstrom scored, Rooker to third.4–2
- 6Rutschman homered to center (401 feet).3–2
- 5Kurtz tripled to right, Butler scored and Gelof scored.3–1
- 5Gelof singled to left, Wilson scored, Butler to second.1–1
- 4Alonso homered to right center (373 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML ATH +117 / BAL -141
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.3%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -127
- ATH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +1 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +30 Elo | BAL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 9–917th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–16 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16–2 | 25–12–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 8–11 BAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.
