Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting1-3
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernaiz walked, Thomas scored, Soderstrom to second, Gelof to third.1–9
- 8Harper homered to center (408 feet), Turner scored.0–9
- 8Turner singled to center, Crawford scored.0–7
- 7Stott homered to right center (398 feet), Realmuto scored.0–6
- 7Realmuto doubled to left, Harper scored and Marsh scored.0–4
- 7García hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.0–2
- 3Harper homered to right center (393 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML ATH +179 / PHI -219
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.8%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -192
- ATH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.8 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +40 Elo | PHI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 8–1025th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301487 | Elo rating | 15149th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–14 | 10–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16–2 | 17–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–6 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
