Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gelof homered to left center (389 feet), Butler scored.12–1
- 5Kurtz singled to right, Gelof scored.10–1
- 5Gelof tripled to left, Butler scored.9–1
- 4Schwarber homered to right (377 feet).8–1
- 4Rooker reached on infield single to second, Langeliers scored, Soderstrom to third.8–0
- 3Wilson homered to left (350 feet), Cortes scored.7–0
- 3Cortes singled to center, Soderstrom scored.5–0
- 1Rooker homered to left (384 feet), Soderstrom scored.4–0
- 1Langeliers homered to left center (412 feet), Kurtz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML ATH +114 / PHI -137
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.3 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +55 Elo | PHI 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 10–1016th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15187th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–16 | 12–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16–2 | 19–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–8 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
