Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crawford grounded out to pitcher, Sosa scored, Stott to second, Marsh to third.3–6
- 8Marsh singled to center, García scored, Sosa to second.3–5
- 8Sosa singled to center, Harper scored and Schwarber scored, García to second.3–4
- 6García homered to center (421 feet).3–2
- 6Soderstrom homered to left (363 feet).3–1
- 5Reyes grounded out to shortstop, Marsh scored.2–1
- 5Kurtz singled to right, Gelof scored.2–0
- 3Wilson singled to right, Butler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML ATH +135 / PHI -163
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.6%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -146
- ATH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.6 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +53 Elo | PHI 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 9–1021st of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–15 | 11–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 17–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16–2 | 18–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–7 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
