Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Beavers singled to left, Basallo scored, Taveras to third.1–2
- 3Henderson reached on infield single to first, Beavers scored, Wilson to third.1–1
- 2Cortes hit sacrifice fly to left, Soderstrom scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML ATH -102 / BAL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 49.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -107
- ATH +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 5.2 – 5.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −11 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Keegan Akin: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +6 Elo | ATH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 9–1124th of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 147725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–16 | 18–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 20–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18–2 | 25–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 10–11 BAL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.