New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mayo homered to left (389 feet), Rutschman scored and O'Neill scored.2–3
- 3Rice homered to left center (374 feet), Grisham scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -149 / BAL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.6%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -134
- BAL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −9 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +68 Elo | NYY 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.411th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 10–1123rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 147825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–16 | 18–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–14 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21–3 | 25–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 24–19 BAL in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 43.