New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-3
- Max FriedPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Alexander singled to left, Mayo scored and O'Neill scored, Wilson to second.0–7
- 5Rutschman homered to right center (393 feet), Alexander scored.0–5
- 3Alonso singled to right, Ward scored, Alonso out stretching at second.0–3
- 3Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to center, Alexander scored.0–2
- 2Mayo doubled to left, Taveras scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -163 / BAL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -146
- BAL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +58 Elo | NYY 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 11–1222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 1st of 301557 | Elo rating | 147725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–17 | 19–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–15 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 17–23–3 | 25–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 25–20 BAL in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 45.