Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-3
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jones grounded into fielder's choice to third, Pérez scored, Dingler out at second, McGonigle to third.4–1
- 3Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to center, Varsho scored.4–0
- 3Varsho tripled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.3–0
- 1Varsho scored on Flaherty wild pitch, Sánchez to second on wild pitch by Flaherty.2–0
- 1Varsho scored on Flaherty wild pitch, Sánchez to second on wild pitch by Flaherty.2–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -119 / DET -102
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.8%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- TOR -108
- DET +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 3.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −18 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +13 Elo | TOR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 13–75th of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 149515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–24 | 21–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22–2 | 21–23–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–11 DET in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 22.