Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Yohendrick PinangoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer MilesPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Varsho singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.2–1
- 7Pinango homered to right (348 feet).1–1
- 6Vierling homered to left (364 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML TOR -101 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- DET: Elo 52.0%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | 0 | TOR: Mason Fluharty: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +14 Elo | DET 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 11th of 301513 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–24 | 21–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21–2 | 21–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–11 DET in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 21.