New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vientos grounded out to second, Bichette scored.3–6
- 7Judge scored on error, Bellinger safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Benge, Bellinger safe at second on error.3–5
- 5Vientos doubled to left, Soto scored and Benge scored.2–5
- 5Goldschmidt singled to right, Rice scored, Bellinger to second.2–3
- 4Baty doubled to right, Slater scored.1–3
- 3Benge scored on Rodón wild pitch and Bichette scored on throwing error by pitcher Rodón, Soto to third on wild pitch by Rodón.1–2
- 3Benge scored on Rodón wild pitch and Bichette scored on throwing error by pitcher Rodón, Soto to third on wild pitch by Rodón.1–2
- 2Grisham singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -126 / NYM +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.1%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Huascar Brazoban: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +43 Elo | NYY 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 9–1328th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148530th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301555 | Elo rating | 149118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–18 | 18–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–16 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–24–4 | 16–23–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–9 NYM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.