New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Elmer RodriguezPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Benge grounded into fielder's choice to left, Semien scored, Torrens to second.6–7
- 9Taylor homered to left (404 feet), Benge scored and Soto scored.6–6
- 7Volpe walked, Bellinger scored, Schuemann to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.6–3
- 6Torrens doubled to right, Ewing scored and Semien scored.5–3
- 6Volpe scored on error, Grisham safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Bichette, Grisham safe at second on error.5–1
- 6Rosario hit sacrifice fly to right, Schuemann scored, Volpe to second.4–1
- 6Volpe singled to left, Bellinger scored and Chisholm Jr. scored, Schuemann to third.3–1
- 4Semien doubled to right, Vientos scored, Baty to third.1–1
- 3Rice homered to center (409 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYY +105 / NYM -126
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 44.6%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | NYY: Elmer Rodriguez: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +38 Elo | NYY 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 10–1326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148629th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301553 | Elo rating | 149417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–19 | 19–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–17 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–24–4 | 17–23–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–10 NYM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.