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Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, MLB Net, Prime Video, Sportsnet One

Away

Blue Jays

22-27

2–1

at

Home

Yankees

30-20

TOR 40%NYY 60%

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Yankee Stadium · MLB.TV, MLB Net, Prime Video, Sportsnet One

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.

NYY75%50%75%TORStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blue Jays
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-3, 1 RBI
  • Trey YesavagePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Yankees
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4
  • Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Goldschmidt grounded out to pitcher, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.2–1
  • 7Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Valenzuela scored, Giménez to third.2–0
  • 7Austin Wells challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Andrés Giménez walks. Ernie Clement scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd. Brandon Valenzuela to 2nd.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 60%

LeanMiss
TOR 40%NYY 60%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
NYY 60%
ML TOR +137 / NYY -166
Pre-line forecast
NYY 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 59%
Ratings vs. market
−0.5 pts
NYY: Elo 59.2%, market 59.7%
Fair odds
NYY -148
TOR +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 3.3 – 4.2 NYY
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORNYYWhy
Team rating15141554Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+9+16TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +65 EloNYY 59.2%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 60.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 59.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 59.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatNYY
22nd of 304.1Runs scored5.14th of 30
13th of 304.4Runs allowed3.74th of 30
19th of 30−0.3Margin+1.44th of 30
18th of 304–6Last 104–618th of 30
25th of 308–16Road vs home16–62nd of 30
22nd of 301495Opponent Elo149424th of 30
11th of 301514Elo rating15543rd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Blue JaysYankees
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORNYY
Run line24–2428–21
Last 106–44–6
Favorite11–1623–19
Underdog13–85–2
Overs–unders23–23–221–24–4
Overs–unders, last 106–44–5–1

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 23–22 NYY in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 45.