Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer MilesPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Springer homered to left (359 feet).2–0
- 1Varsho doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML TOR +124 / NYY -149
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.5%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -134
- TOR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −6 | TOR: Braydon Fisher: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +67 Elo | NYY 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–16 | Road vs home | 16–72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–24 | 28–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24–2 | 21–25–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 24–22 NYY in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 46.
- May 20TOR 2 @ NYY 1Picked NYY 60%Miss
- May 19TOR 4 @ NYY 5Picked NYY 54%Hit
- May 18TOR 6 @ NYY 7Picked NYY 61%Hit
- Oct 8TOR 5 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Miss
- Oct 7TOR 6 @ NYY 9PlayoffsPicked NYY 60%Hit
- Oct 5NYY 7 @ TOR 13PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Miss
- Oct 4NYY 1 @ TOR 10PlayoffsPicked TOR 53%Hit
- Sep 7TOR 3 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 62%Hit