Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker singled to left, Herrera scored, Burleson to second.6–2
- 7Reynolds grounded out to shortstop, Cruz scored, Lowe to second.6–1
- 7Davis homered to left (375 feet).5–1
- 6Ozuna singled to left, Horwitz scored and Griffin scored.4–1
- 4Mangum grounded into fielder's choice to second, Griffin scored, Ozuna out at second.2–1
- 3Herrera homered to left center (408 feet).1–1
- 1Lowe homered to left (342 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -120 / STL -101
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 46.9%, market 52.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 3.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +22 Elo | STL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 13–1214th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 18th of 301491 | Elo rating | 149217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–25 | 29–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 26–22–1 | 21–24–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 22–23 STL in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 45.