Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Griffin grounded out to third, O'Hearn scored, Ozuna to third.11–9
- 10Marchán singled to center, Marsh scored and Stott scored.11–8
- 10Marsh doubled to right, Bohm scored.9–8
- 9Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Phillies challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Bryce Harper singles on a fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Adolis García s8–8
- 9Gregory Soto challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Kyle Schwarber walks. Edmundo Sosa scores. Adolis García to 3rd. Trea Turner to 2nd.6–8
- 7Schwarber homered to center (408 feet), Turner scored.5–8
- 6Horwitz scored on error, Triolo safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Bohm.3–8
- 5Lowe homered to right center (422 feet).3–7
- 5Schwarber homered to right center (400 feet), Stubbs scored.3–6
- 4Stott hit sacrifice fly to center, Harper scored.1–6
- 3Ozuna homered to center (438 feet), Reynolds scored.0–6
- 3Lowe homered to right (378 feet), Cruz scored.0–4
- 3Cruz singled to center, Griffin scored and Rodríguez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML PHI +113 / PIT -136
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +2 Elo | PIT 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 13–1011th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 9th of 301517 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–29 | 23–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20–2 | 24–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–10 PIT in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.