Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Justin CrawfordBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rafaela homered to left center (376 feet), Abreu scored.1–3
- 3Crawford homered to center (403 feet).1–1
- 2Story homered to center (424 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML PHI +108 / BOS -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.0%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- PHI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +2 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +28 Elo | BOS 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 7–1329th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 9th of 301516 | Elo rating | 151012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–28 | 15–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–22 | 8–18 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–18–2 | 19–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.