Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rafaela singled to right, Gasper scored, Story to third.2–1
- 2Stott hit a ground rule double, Marsh scored.2–0
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -136 / BOS +113
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Jovani Moran: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +6 Elo | BOS 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 19th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 7–1228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 9th of 301515 | Elo rating | 151112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–27 | 14–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–21 | 8–18 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17–2 | 19–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–5 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.