Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bohm doubled to left, Realmuto scored and Marsh scored.3–9
- 5Marsh hit sacrifice fly to right, García scored, Sosa to second.3–7
- 4Bohm homered to left center (368 feet).3–6
- 4Karros doubled to left, McCarthy scored and Johnston scored.3–5
- 3Sosa singled to left, García scored.1–5
- 3Schwarber homered to right (417 feet), Stott scored and Turner scored.1–4
- 3Bohm homered to left (373 feet).1–1
- 2Castro homered to right (376 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML COL +157 / PHI -192
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.8%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -169
- COL +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +121 Elo | PHI 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 10–1221st of 30 |
| 5th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 30th of 301412 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–17 | 12–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20–1 | 21–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–18 PHI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 24.