Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Justin CrawfordBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11McCarthy singled to center, Johnston scored.9–7
- 11Johnston doubled to right, Castro scored.8–7
- 8Crawford homered to right center (361 feet), Stott scored.7–7
- 8Stott doubled to center, García scored and Marsh scored.7–5
- 8Marsh singled to left, Harper scored, García to second.7–3
- 7Freeman homered to left center (364 feet).7–2
- 6Realmuto doubled to right, Marsh scored.6–2
- 6Schwarber homered to right (415 feet).6–1
- 4Tovar singled to center, Karros scored.6–0
- 4Karros doubled to left, Castro scored and Doyle scored, Karros to third.5–0
- 4Goodman homered to left (389 feet), Rumfield scored.3–0
- 1Rumfield grounded out to first, Beck scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML COL +189 / PHI -232
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.0%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -202
- COL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +1 | COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +131 Elo | PHI 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–12 | Road vs home | 10–1121st of 30 |
| 5th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 30th of 301410 | Elo rating | 151410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–17 | 12–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20–1 | 20–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–18 PHI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 23.