Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-3
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bohm reached on infield single to third, Marsh scored.0–6
- 2Schwarber homered to right center (378 feet).0–5
- 2Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored.0–4
- 2Stott scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman, Bohm safe at second on error.0–3
- 2Stott scored on throwing error by catcher Goodman, Bohm safe at second on error.0–3
- 1Harper homered to center (411 feet).0–2
- 1Schwarber homered to center (432 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 73%
- ML COL +248 / PHI -314
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.5%, market 72.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -264
- COL +264 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +4 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +119 Elo | PHI 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 72.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–13 | Road vs home | 11–1220th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301410 | Elo rating | 151310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–18 | 13–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 22–18 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20–1 | 22–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–19 PHI in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 25.