Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak tripled to center, Tovar scored and Castro scored.10–4
- 9Sullivan grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Doyle scored on throwing error by pitcher Lawrence, Tovar to second.8–4
- 8Rumfield homered to right center (415 feet).7–4
- 6O'Hearn homered to right center (392 feet).6–4
- 5Moniak homered to right (372 feet), Tovar scored and Sullivan scored.6–3
- 5Tovar singled to right, Karros scored, McCarthy to third.3–3
- 5McCarthy doubled to right, Johnston scored, Karros to third.2–3
- 5Karros singled to left, Rumfield scored, Johnston to third.1–3
- 3Reynolds singled to right, Griffin scored.0–3
- 2Davis grounded into fielder's choice to third, Gonzales scored on interference by pitcher Quintana and O'Hearn scored, Davis second, Lowe safe at third on error.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML COL +153 / PIT -186
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 64.9%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -165
- COL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +106 Elo | PIT 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 12–99th of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 30th of 301407 | Elo rating | 149916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–20 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 22–20 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–22–1 | 22–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–13 PIT in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.