Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting3-4
- Paul SkenesPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman doubled to center, Beck scored.1–3
- 7Reynolds reached on infield single to second, Griffin scored, Cruz to second, Davis to third.0–3
- 5Lowe singled to right, Cruz scored.0–2
- 1Gonzales singled to right, Cruz scored, O'Hearn to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 72%
- ML COL +238 / PIT -299
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 65.9%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- PIT -253
- COL +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.7 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +3 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +115 Elo | PIT 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 68.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–14 | Road vs home | 11–913th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 30 |
| 30th of 301408 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–19 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 22–19 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–21–1 | 22–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–12 PIT in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.