Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Giants- Bryce EldridgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Haase singled to left, Porter scored, Gilbert to second, Chapman to third.13–3
- 9Gilbert walked, Ramos scored, Chapman to second, Porter to third.13–2
- 9O'Hearn grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Lowe scored, Triolo out at second.13–1
- 9Triolo singled to center, Cruz scored, Lowe to third.12–1
- 9Lowe doubled to left, Bart scored, Cruz to third.11–1
- 7O'Hearn reached on infield single to pitcher, Lowe scored, Reynolds to second.10–1
- 7Lowe tripled to right, Bart scored and Cruz scored.9–1
- 7Bart singled to left, Horwitz scored.7–1
- 7Griffin hit sacrifice fly to right, Gonzales scored, Horwitz to third.6–1
- 7Horwitz doubled to center, O'Hearn scored, Gonzales to third.5–1
- 6Bart singled to right, Griffin scored.4–1
- 6Griffin singled to center, Horwitz scored, Griffin to second.3–1
- 5Eldridge homered to right (364 feet).2–1
- 5Reynolds singled to left, Cruz scored, Reynolds to second.2–0
- 5Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Bart scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML PIT -110 / SF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- SF: Elo 51.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +11 Elo | SF 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 9–1124th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15077th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–20 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18–1 | 15–20–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–11 SF in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.