Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 12J. Rodríguez singled to right, Ramos scored, Gilbert to second, Chapman to third.6–7
- 10Adames singled to left, Arraez scored and Koss scored.6–6
- 10Horwitz doubled to center, Gonzales scored and Ozuna scored.6–4
- 6Chapman doubled to left, Ramos scored.4–4
- 6Ramos doubled to right, Devers scored.4–3
- 6Horwitz doubled to center, O'Hearn scored.4–2
- 5Cruz homered to left center (360 feet).3–2
- 4Ramos homered to left center (437 feet).2–2
- 3Arraez singled to left, Lee scored.2–1
- 2Griffin homered to center (413 feet).2–0
- 1Gonzales singled to center, Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML PIT +104 / SF -126
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- SF: Elo 51.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +12 Elo | SF 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 8th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 9–1226th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–20 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–11 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18–1 | 16–20–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–11 SF in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.