Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Troy JohnstonBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Triolo singled to center, Horwitz scored, Rodríguez to second.2–7
- 4Johnston doubled to right, Castro scored and Rumfield scored.2–6
- 3Cruz grounded out to shortstop, Ozuna scored, Triolo to second, Rodríguez to third.0–6
- 3Rodríguez singled to center, Griffin scored and O'Hearn scored, Ozuna to second.0–5
- 1O'Hearn homered to center (413 feet), Reynolds scored.0–3
- 1Reynolds singled to left, Cruz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML COL +148 / PIT -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 66.2%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- PIT -159
- COL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +6 | COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mason Montgomery: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +116 Elo | PIT 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–15 | Road vs home | 12–1013th of 30 |
| 5th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 30th of 301411 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–20 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 23–20 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22–1 | 23–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–13 PIT in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.