Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-4
- Andre PallantePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Perez homered to left (393 feet).2–0
- 1Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML KC +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- STL: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.7 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | KC: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–17 | Road vs home | 12–1013th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 18th of 301490 | Elo rating | 149516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–22 | 28–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24–1 | 20–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–8 STL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 16.