St. Louis Cardinals at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-5
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gelof homered to center (403 feet).2–6
- 7Bolte hit sacrifice fly to right, Kurtz scored, Thomas to third.2–5
- 7Herrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Pagés scored.2–4
- 5Kurtz homered to center (405 feet), Hernaiz scored, Stefanic scored and Langeliers scored.1–4
- 4Church singled to center, Gorman scored, Winn to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 56%
- ML STL +119 / ATH -144
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- ATH: Elo 52.5%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- ATH -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +17 Elo | ATH 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3014–7 | Road vs home | 8–923rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15077th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–15 | 24–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 24–12 | 21–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19–3 | 19–19–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–3 ATH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
